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18/08/2026 13:27Canonical Notion Stock Thesis + Analysis Log; UI read model được cache tối đa 60 giây.
Tactical Risk-Off remains after the 14/08 breakdown. Base case: stabilize/test 1,716–1,706; if downside supply continues to contract, a technical bounce toward 1,737–1,757 is possible. Bounce remains suspect until 1,748–1,757 is reclaimed; acceptance below 1,706 increases risk toward 1,683–1,659.
Bối cảnh thị trường lấy từ luận điểm VNINDEX chuẩn hóa.
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Bảng đọc nhanh thesis chuẩn hóa của VNINDEX và từng cổ phiếu.
| Mã | Định hướng | Wyckoff / Cấu trúc | Kịch bản | Hỗ trợ | Kháng cự | Độ tin cậy | Cập nhật |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSN Masan Group | Kỹ thuậtHỗn hợpCơ bảnTích cực | Weekly range ~61–80; 61–63 remains potential Spring/shakeout candidate. Failed SOS 13/08 produced a 4H SOW candidate on 14/08, but 17/08 price held 65.5–65.8 and rebounded to 66.9, so the SOW is not confirmed on HTF. Current state is breakdown-reclaim/test candidate; successful hold above 66.6–67.0 would repair the 4H bearish CHoCH, while rejection and renewed acceptance below 65.5 would re-strengthen SOW. | Tăng20% Cơ sở50% Giảm30% | 66.3 immediate pivot after 17/08 rebound; 65.8–65.5 key decision support; 64.8–65.0 next structural shelf; 63–64 secondary HTF support; 61–62 structural range low | 67.0–67.3 immediate reclaim/supply; 67.5–67.9 stronger supply; 68.5–69.5 canonical bullish confirmation including MA50D area; 71.5–73 intermediate supply; 76–80 major Weekly/Monthly supply | Trung bình | 14:50 17/08/26 |
| VNINDEX VN-Index | Kỹ thuậtHỗn hợp | Primary uptrend under intermediate correction. Reaccumulation remains only a low-confidence working hypothesis; 17/08 looks like a tentative test/stopping attempt after failed rally and breakdown, not a confirmed Spring/SOS. Need reclaim/follow-through before upgrading. | Tăng15% Cơ sở50% Giảm35% | 1,716–1,717 immediate; 1,706; structural 1,683–1,659 | 1,737–1,740 first; 1,748–1,757 key broken support/supply; 1,773; 1,792–1,798; 1,815; 1,858–1,868 | Trung bình | 14:49 17/08/26 |
| VPB Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Việt Nam Thịnh Vượng | Kỹ thuậtHỗn hợp | Contracting trading range / symmetrical-triangle compression; rebound from lower boundary is constructive, but SOS/Phase D is unconfirmed while price remains below 26.0–26.3 resistance. | Tăng30% Cơ sở55% Giảm15% | 25.20–25.35 immediate; 24.30–24.60 structural | 26.03–26.13 immediate; 26.3; 27.0–27.66 secondary; 28.8–29.3 major | Trung bình | 15:14 12/08/26 |
17/08 14:48 Finhay: MSN 66.9, O/H/L 66.3/66.9/65.9, +0.90%, volume 3.3068m. Supplied charts: Daily RSI ~46.94, vol ~3.307m vs MA ~4.256m; 4H price 66.9, RSI ~49.31, volume ~1.929m vs MA ~1.802m, price back above 4H MA50 ~66.49 intrabar; 1H RSI ~47.71 and volume ~1.017m vs MA ~868k after rebound from 65.9. The 14/08 SOW candidate has not gained downside acceptance below 65.5–65.8 and is now being tested by a reclaim attempt. Probabilities 15/40/45 → 20/50/30, provisional before EOD close.
17/08: VNINDEX stabilized after the 14/08 breakdown. O 1,727.81 / H 1,735.20 / L 1,715.91 / C 1,727.46 (-0.09%). The index marginally undercut the prior 1,717.64 low but recovered back near the open; volume ~519.2M was well below the chart average ~711.5M. This suggests tentative supply contraction/downside rejection, but no meaningful resistance has been reclaimed.
Initial canonical TA baseline. 12/08/2026 close 25.70 (+0.78%) after rebound from late-July lows; RSI ~51 and MACD histogram positive, but price remains below MA50/Kijun around 26.0 and session volume 7.49M is ~50% of 20D average 15.05M, so breakout commitment is absent.